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Good evening! Today again economic data on the schedule. Yesterday we had quite a bit of volatility in terms of volatility, with Bitcoin rising more than 6% (partly thanks to more favorable CPI data). However, later in the evening during and after Powell’s speech we returned more than 4% to the market.

After the more favorable CPI data earlier in the day, some optimism was incorporated into the price and Powell largely suppressed that. It is still too early to lower interest rates. They must find a balance between the risk of an economy cooling down too much (recession risk) and inflation risk.

Inflation risk is always the top priority and a new wave of inflation would be disastrous for both the economy and the market. Inflation is coming down well, but is not yet at the desired levels where the FED can comfortably say that it will change monetary policy.

Originally, the market expected 2 to 3 interest rate cuts this year, but now 1 to 2 interest rate cuts are now expected and that difference was then priced into the market. Hence the decline.

So it is important to know that it is not just about what the economic data is (higher or lower), but above all what the market expects and has therefore priced in. A difference between prediction and actual outcome results in a reaction from the market. Yesterday we saw a good example of this. Difficult to respond to and that is why we always recommend that you simply wait out those dates and sit on your hands as much as possible, if you do not have sufficient knowledge and experience for this. No position is also a position.

However, the PPI figures are planned. PPI stands for Producer Price Index and measures the average change in domestic prices. The data is calculated based on purchases from wholesalers. An increase in PPI means an increase in inflation. As an investor, we would like to see a declining PPI. The same outcome as the prediction means little action. Higher than expected means a falling market, lower than expected means a rising market. The impact on price movements will be relatively short-lived.

Weekly chart:

The weekly pattern remains the same. We are in consolidation. Above $59,000 and below $74,000 we are moving sideways and there is no trend. Below $59,000 things get very annoying very quickly and you’re looking at $53,000 and potentially much lower prices. Above $74,000 you’re looking at $100,000 and up. So anything between $59,000 and $74,000 is noise for long-term investors.

Daggraphic:

The daily chart still looks fine. We have reached a key low at $66,311 and now appear to be receiving support from that. As long as we hold that low, we can continue to look up towards $72,169 and then new all-time highs. If we lose, there is a real risk that we will take a step lower towards the demand at $63,095-$61,000 (gray zone). This would still fit within the bullish plan. From there I am still looking towards new all-time highs.

4-hour chart:

Not much has changed locally. I’m still looking at the same two ideas we’ve been sketching for a while. Either from here towards a new all-time high or after an additional drop below the low of $65,931, to still move towards new all-time highs from there. If we close below $65,931, then it makes sense to look a lot lower.

Conclusion

In short, I am bullish on Bitcoin and continue to look up. Things are a bit turbulent locally, but I see no reason to doubt the bullish outcome in the coming period. Have a nice day!

Disclaimer: The analyzes above are based on technical patterns and trends in the crypto market. It is critical to emphasize that this information is not intended as financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments inherently involve risk and are subject to volatility. Before making investment decisions, it is recommended to do your own research, seek financial advice and only invest what you can afford to lose.

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Source: https://cryptobenelux.com/2024/06/13/bitcoin-daalt-alsnog-na-fomc-meeting-maar-ligt-het-ergste-nu-achter-ons/



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