The criticism of the S2F model
This bullish outlook came just two days after bitcoin crossed the $60,000 mark for the first time in more than two years, only to see a slight decline of 0.75%.
Despite the popularity of the S2F model during the 2021 bull run, the model has been criticized for its inaccuracies, most notably failing to predict that bitcoin would reach $100,000 by early August 2021 when it was trading around $44,000. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has criticized the model for giving investors a “false sense of security.”
A look at previous bitcoin halvings and their impact
PlanB’s analysis aligns with other market forecasts, which show a pattern where bitcoin consolidates shortly after a halving event but tends to rally in subsequent months.
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1763547197126156519
Furthermore, the adoption of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has boosted investor interest in bitcoin. These ETFs contributed significantly by recording more than $2 billion in combined daily volume for two consecutive days on February 28. According to CryptoQuant, these new ETFs accounted for 75% of new bitcoin investments since their launch on January 11.
The future of bitcoin
Despite a 3% correction in the bitcoin price, strong selling followed by the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF. This ETF sold $598.9 million worth of BTC on February 29. Still, the price of bitcoin has risen more than 22% in the past week, according to CoinMarketCap.
Bitfinex Analysts expect that bitcoin could reach a price target of $100,000-$120,000 by the fourth quarter of 2024. The peak point of the cycle is expected sometime in 2025, in terms of total crypto market capitalization.
Source: https://bitcoinmagazine.nl/data-plus-analyse/planb-bitcoin-bullmarkt-fomo-golf