-->According to PlanB, a Dutch analyst and the creator of the stock-to-flow (S2F) model for predicting the bitcoin price, the bull market for bitcoin officially started on March 1. PlanB shared this insight in a message on X, citing the S2F chart as evidence that the accumulation phase for bitcoin has concluded, meaning the end of easy buying opportunities. He predicts about ten months of intense market activity, characterized by significant price increases alternating with declines of up to 30%.

The criticism of the S2F model

This bullish outlook came just two days after bitcoin crossed the $60,000 mark for the first time in more than two years, only to see a slight decline of 0.75%.

Despite the popularity of the S2F model during the 2021 bull run, the model has been criticized for its inaccuracies, most notably failing to predict that bitcoin would reach $100,000 by early August 2021 when it was trading around $44,000. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has criticized the model for giving investors a “false sense of security.”

A look at previous bitcoin halvings and their impact

PlanB’s analysis aligns with other market forecasts, which show a pattern where bitcoin consolidates shortly after a halving event but tends to rally in subsequent months.


Furthermore, the adoption of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has boosted investor interest in bitcoin. These ETFs contributed significantly by recording more than $2 billion in combined daily volume for two consecutive days on February 28. According to CryptoQuant, these new ETFs accounted for 75% of new bitcoin investments since their launch on January 11.

The future of bitcoin

Despite a 3% correction in the bitcoin price, strong selling followed by the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF. This ETF sold $598.9 million worth of BTC on February 29. Still, the price of bitcoin has risen more than 22% in the past week, according to CoinMarketCap.

Bitfinex Analysts expect that bitcoin could reach a price target of $100,000-$120,000 by the fourth quarter of 2024. The peak point of the cycle is expected sometime in 2025, in terms of total crypto market capitalization.

Source: https://bitcoinmagazine.nl/data-plus-analyse/planb-bitcoin-bullmarkt-fomo-golf

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