“Bitcoin price after halving to $435,000 if history repeats itself”

Bitcoin is up about 650% since the last halving in 2020. If history repeats itself, the largest cryptocurrency could reach the $435,000 price level before the block grant halving in 2028.

At the time of writing, the price is around $66,000, just below the all-time high.

The halving of the block subsidy is also “planned” in just under three weeks. If historical chart patterns were to repeat, bitcoin’s current price of $66,000 could rise to $434,280 per coin.

However… Bitcoin price rallies have seen diminishing returns in recent cycles, aka diminishing returns named.

Until the first halving in 2012, bitcoin rose from virtually no value to $12.5, an increase of more than 12,400%. The price then rose 5,200% to $650 at the 2016 halving, and 1,200% to $8,500 at the 2020 halving.

You can already see it: 12,400%, 5,200%, later 1,200% and now 650%. If we halve again to a return of 300% in one cycle, the price would be about $200,000.

If the trend of these diminishing returns repeats and continues a little more closely, Bitcoin will rally 360% in the next cycle. The price will then be approximately $303,600 in 2028.

Of course, it’s all just a piece of cake and the past is no guarantee of the future.

Hao Yang, head of financial products at Bybit, says:

“Given the halving and price trends, from a very rigorous quantitative point of view, there is no evidence supporting a positive correlation between the halving and the BTC price. But history can be interpreted in many different ways, I certainly hope $435,000 by 2028, but don’t put too much into it.”