With the arrival of spot bitcoin ETFs, some experts consider that bitcoin can overtake gold as a safe haven within two years.

Will bitcoin replace gold as a safe haven? Certain signals suggest this, particularly if we compare the flows of spot ETFs based on bitcoin and gold. As a reminder, an ETF (or Exchange Traded Funds) is an index fund trading on a stock exchange which follows the evolution of a stock index (or one or more financial or physical assets, such as gold ) by replicating the rise or fall in the price of this index (or these assets).

Indeed, the 14 main gold-based ETFs faced net outflows of $2.4 billion over a rolling year, according to Bloomberg. Since the start of the year, it has been the same trend, with more exits than entries in these gold-backed investment products. Conversely, since their introduction to the American market on January 10, spot bitcoin ETFs have accumulated more than $3.89 billion in positive flows.

“This trend reinforces our confidence in the dual role of bitcoin, both as a risk investment and as a safe haven. We continue to believe that bitcoin will outperform gold under these two market conditions,” they said. said Ryze Labs analysts at The Block.

Two-year horizon

Despite these predictions, the market capitalization of spot ETFs based on gold remains three times higher than that of spot ETFs based on bitcoin. “In this regard, the market capitalization of bitcoin-backed ETFs could potentially exceed that of gold over the next two years, via price appreciation,” underlines the company ETC Group.

As a reminder, on January 10, the American stock market watchdog (the SEC) authorized 11 spot bitcoin ETFs, offered in particular by asset managers like Blackrock and Fidelity. Before this date, the SEC only approved bitcoin futures ETFs (this was the case since 2021) but not spot bitcoin ETFs (spot), whereas futures contracts are more difficult to manipulate because the market is based on futures prices from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CTFC).

Source: https://www.bfmtv.com/crypto/bitcoin/le-bitcoin-bien-parti-pour-detroner-l-or-comme-valeur-refuge_AV-202402200411.html

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