Marathon Digital: this is what bitcoin will do after the halving

Marathon Digital CEO Fred Thiel does not expect the next halving of bitcoin to have a major impact on the price. For now, the halving is scheduled for April 19, which will reduce daily production from 900 to 450 bitcoin.

At current rates, that makes a difference of around $30 million per day and more than $10 billion per year. The latter seems a significant amount for something that will have little impact.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs are tampering with the cycle

Fred Thiel believes that the launch of the Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States is messing with bitcoin’s normal cycle.

“I think the ETF approvals, which have been a huge success for bitcoin, have attracted a lot of capital into the market and may allow the effect of the halving to happen a bit earlier.

Normally we only see this price action three to six months after the halving. I think we are already getting some of that price action,” said Thiel.

Of the 11 ETFs currently on the market, four ETFs are seeing the most success. In fact, they are among the most successful ETF launches in the history of the market.

Bitcoin overtakes gold?

The market cap of gold is many times larger than that of bitcoin, but the ETFs are starting to breathe down the neck of the precious metal. For example, the ETFs have managed to buy 50 percent of the market cap of the Gold ETFs within a few months.

Gold ETFs have been around for 20 years now, so that makes this achievement even more impressive. After all, the Spot Bitcoin ETFs have only been tradable for a few months.

At the time of writing, the bitcoin price is clocking in at $70,900 and we are quietly waiting for the halving. This will not immediately have much influence on the bitcoin price, because 450 bitcoin per day will of course not immediately make a difference in the market.