Financial analyst JMP Securities anticipates bitcoin at $280,000 within 3 years, due to bitcoin spot ETFs, these new financial products which are panicking investors.

While bitcoin exceeded $73,000 this Wednesday for the first time in its history, forecasts on the price of the queen of cryptocurrencies are increasingly optimistic. In a report, the broker JMP Securities forecasts bitcoin at $280,000 within three years, due to the euphoria around bitcoin spot ETFs, these new financial products which are panicking investors.

JMP Securities anticipates that $220 billion in flows will flow into these products over the next 3 years, which could have a “significant impact” on the price of bitcoin. “We estimate a current multiplier of approximately 25x, which, according to our flow estimate, would equate to an additional $280,000 per bitcoin,” said a note seen by CoinDesk.

If other analysts are counting on a high bitcoin price, investors are encouraged to remain cautious. The cryptocurrency market, still young (bitcoin is only 15 years old), remains volatile. We remember that the asset fell sharply in 2022 after the collapses of crypto companies, notably Terra Luna and FTX, with bitcoin reaching $16,000 in November 2022.

Better than gold

But in 2023, the price of bitcoin had finally gained 150% and the asset has soared since the start of 2024, due to spot bitcoin ETFs.

As a reminder, on January 10, the American stock market watchdog (the SEC) authorized 11 spot bitcoin ETFs, offered in particular by asset managers like Blackrock and Fidelity. An ETF (or Exchange Traded Funds) is an index fund trading on a stock exchange which follows the evolution of a stock index (or one or more financial or physical assets, such as gold) by replicating the increase as well as the drop in the price of this index (or these assets).

Before January 10, the SEC only approved Bitcoin futures ETF (this was the case since 2021) but not spot (spot) bitcoin ETFs, considering that futures are more difficult to manipulate because the market is based on the futures prices of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CTFC).

Since their release, spot bitcoin ETFs have already made billions of dollars in the bitcoin market, sometimes doing better than in the gold market. For example, the Blackrock product, called iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), crossed the $10 billion mark in assets under management, just seven weeks after its launch. For comparison, the first gold-backed ETF in the United States, the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), took two years to reach such an amount.


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