This is the hypothesis made by the company 10X Research, which specializes in analyzing cryptocurrency prices.
While bitcoin is trading above $52,000, the company 10X Research predicts that bitcoin will surpass its historic peak (of $69,000, reached in November 2021), before April 2024. It is based on the combination of 2 elements: the next halving of bitcoin and the analysis of its RSI (Relative Strength Index).
The next bitcoin halving will take place on April 19, in 60 days. Let’s come back to this phenomenon which takes place every four years. As a reminder, the Bitcoin blockchain operates on a so-called “proof of work” system where tens of thousands of computers (“miners”) run to solve a mathematical problem which makes it possible to add a new transaction (block) to the blockchain, making it possible to secure the network. To add a block, a miner must be the first to calculate a hashrate, which represents the computing power necessary to register a new block on the blockchain.
By adding a new block, miners are rewarded in bitcoin. This reward is divided by two every four years according to the principle of halving, defined from the start in the bitcoin white paper. To date, this reward is 6.25 bitcoins per validated block, compared to 3.125 bitcoins at the next halving in April 2024. To finance their activity, miners must put into circulation on the market the bitcoins that they they acquired. However, from April, they will put fewer into circulation.
60 days of halving
The company 10X Research recalls that 60 days before the three previous halvings, and due to the halving of bitcoins issued on the market, bitcoin increased by approximately 32%, then 30% eight weeks after this event. This Monday, February 19, we are 60 days from the next halving.
“The closer we get to the bitcoin halving, the higher the probability that bitcoin will recover, as evidenced by the last three halving cycles,” underlines the report consulted by CoinDesk .
Concretely, if the 32% increase in the price of bitcoin begins 60 days before the halving, provided that bitcoin still trades above $52,000, this “means that prices could rise “exchange near the record level of 69,000 dollars at the latest during the halving”, indicates CoinDesk. The next halving comes against a backdrop of euphoria for bitcoin, which has been buoyed for a month by the arrival of spot bitcoin ETFs.
Bullish momentum
Another indicator to consider: the RSI (Relative Strengh Index), which measures the speed and evolution of the price of an asset over a given period. If the RSI exceeds 70, it means upward momentum in the price of an asset.
“A week ago, bitcoin’s 14-day RSI rose above 80 for the first time since December. According to 10X Research, 12 of the previous 14 RSI signals predicted accelerated uptrends, producing an average gain of 54% over the next 60 days,” it reads.
Concretely, an increase in the price of bitcoin by 54% in 60 days would allow the asset to exceed $74,000.
Despite these optimistic hypotheses, the price of bitcoin remains 23% lower than its historic peak, after having gone through very strong turbulence in 2022. Finally, the past performance of an asset does not guarantee , in any case, of its future results.
Source: https://www.bfmtv.com/crypto/bitcoin/vers-un-bitcoin-au-dessus-de-70-000-dollars-avant-avril-2024_AV-202402190450.html
