At the time of writing, the bitcoin price is under pressure and after a decline of more than 6 percent, it comes in at ~$68,000. According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin may begin a correction that will end around the $61,700 level.

But on what basis do they expect the price to fall before the next halving?

Huge correction coming?

Based on the so-called MVRV Pricing Bands, Glassnode analysts expect that bitcoin can start a correction by retesting the MRVR level of 2.4 (yellow line).

MVRV Pricing Bands

At the time of writing, that level is $61,700. That would mean quite a drop from here, but ultimately price is also a huge psychological thing.

If you had said in November 2022 that we would now be at $61,000, you would immediately sign for it. Now it feels less good, because we are already at $73,000.

The MVRV Pricing Bands are graphical representations that show the relationship between the Market Cap and the Realized Cap. You get the Realized Cap by adding up the last price at which each bitcoin last changed address.

This gives you a more realistic picture of the amount of capital in bitcoin.

Bitcoin whales make profits

On-chain data further tells us that whales are currently increasingly choosing to book their profits. Wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 bitcoin have sold more than 80,000 bitcoin in the past month. At current prices, that is worth almost $5 billion worth of bitcoin.

Bitcoin Whales HoldingsBitcoin Whales Holdings

If this continues, a correction may start in the short term, as short-term holders see their profits slowly evaporate.

Short-Term Holder Profit MarginShort-Term Holder Profit Margin

Due to the enormous increases in bitcoin, those short-term holders stand to make a very considerable profit. Short-term holders are people who have owned their bitcoin for less than 155 days.

These are people who entered the market with relatively short amounts of money and not much later stand to make a huge profit thanks to the new all-time highs of bitcoin.


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